We’re edging closer and closer to the State of Origin period which will have huge ramifications on NRL Supercoach squads.
It’s imperative that overall focused players searching for a top ranking cast an eye towards those three major bye rounds in round 13, 16 and 19 where half the competition are out of action, leaving our Supercoach squads short on numbers.
For those weeks, only your top 13 scoring players from your 25 man squad count towards your team’s total for that week.
Generally speaking, you don’t necessarily need to have 13 players on the dot, but as a rule of thumb if you can aim to have even 11-12 players it should stand you in good stead for ranking rises without ripping your squad apart in the process.
The Origin period differs for head-to-head focused players looking purely to win their leagues who shouldn’t be too fazed.
Check your league settings, some leagues may play head-to-head fixtures on those three weeks, but the majority will have a Supercoach bye of their own meaning it’s not overly important.
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Anyway, we’ll have plenty more on this across our content and podcasts over the next month leading in.
The Cooma Stallions plummeted down to earth, and down the rankings, with an absolute Barry in Round 8.
We scored a measly 1,080 points to drop to 16,800 in the rankings, it was gut-wrenching.
The team didn’t do too badly, but I skippered Tom Trbojevic for his 55 points, while 40% of top ranked coaches captained Nicho Hynes for his 160 points.
It wasn’t to be, so we now press on and look for a bounce back week.
Let’s take a look at the NRL Supercoach teams analysis for round 9, with squad lists courtesy of Fox Sports.
RABBITOHS v PANTHERS
Thursday, 7:50pm, Accor Stadium, Sydney
Rabbitohs:1. Jye Gray 2. Jacob Gagai 3. Jack Wighton 4. Isaiah Tass 5. Izaac Tu’itupou Thompson 6. Cody Walker 7. Dean Hawkins 8. Keaon Koloamatangi 9. Damien Cook 10. Davvy Moale 11. Michael Chee Kam 12. Jacob Host 13. Cameron Murray
Bench: 14. Peter Mamouzelos 15. Siliva Havili 16. Thomas Burgess 17. Jai Arrow
Reserves: 18. Tallis Duncan 19. Sean Keppie 20. Liam Le Blanc 21. Dion Teaupa 22. Adam Christensen
Analysis: Once again, you can’t really go near any Rabbitohs players on current form with an upcoming match-up with the Panthers.
The one exception is Jacob Gagai who is set for his first price rise, and with a 71 point average he has a breakeven of -81.
There are plenty of red flags, but he is currently playing on the left wing for the Rabbitohs which is a golden position to be in even in an ordinary side, evidenced by his two tries last week in a thumping.
A score of 40 this week would net him $100k!
With Taane Milne suspended and injuries galore across their backline he may have that spot for a while.
For those downgrading the likes of James Schiller and Ethan Strange he looks a decent option, but do not play him in your 17!
Panthers:1. Dylan Edwards 2. Sunia Turuva 3. Izack Tago 4. Taylan May 5. Brian To’o 6. Jarome Luai 7. Nathan Cleary 8. Moses Leota 9. Mitch Kenny 10. James Fisher-Harris 11. Luke Garner 12. Liam Martin 13. Isaah Yeo
Bench: 14. Daine Laurie 15. Lindsay Smith 16. Matt Eisenhuth 17. Mavrik Geyer
Reserves: 18. Jack Cole 19. Paul Alamoti 20. Brad Schneider 21. Preston Riki 22. Tyrone Peachey
Analysis: This looms as a dream match-up for the Panthers.
Nathan Cleary remains a strong bye despite scoring just 51 on return from injury.
Sunia Turuva returns in place of Paul Alamoti.
Despite not scoring well last week, Izack Tago is bottoming out nicely in price at $610k with a breakeven of 97.
With Nathan Cleary back on the right edge, he’s a genuine POD play with round 13 coverage.
If Taylan May can’t score well in this fixture, it’ll be very hard to continue making a case to hold him despite that round 13 coverage.
He’s averaging just 42 points this season with an impressive 31 in base.
Remarkably, he hasn’t scored a try or set one up this season.
He’s had just one try contribution, one linebreak (round 1) and no linebreak assists.
He’s playing on the wrong side of the field at the Panthers for Supercoach relevance.
SEA EAGLES v RAIDERS
Friday, 6pm, 4 Pines Park, Sydney
Sea Eagles:1. Tom Trbojevic 2. Jason Saab 3. Tolutau Koula 4. Reuben Garrick 5. Tommy Talau 6. Luke Brooks 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Taniela Paseka 9. Lachlan Croker 10. Josh Aloiai 11. Ethan Bullemor 12. Corey Waddell 13. Jake Trbojevic
Bench: 14. Karl Lawton 15. Toafofoa Sipley 16. Nathan Brown 17. Matthew Lodge
Reserves: 18. Aaron Woods 19. Jakob Arthur 20. Jaxson Paulo 21. Ben Condon 22. Gordon Chan Kum Tong
Analysis: Reuben Garrick has bottomed out at $604k following his third-minute concussion a few weeks back against Penrith.
He went gangbusters last week with 145 points against the Eels.
With a breakeven of 4 and round 16 and 19 coverage where he may even play fullback with Tom Trbojevic on Origin duties, he looks a great pick-up.
The absence of Haumole Olakau’atu and Daly Cherry-Evans (pending suspension appeal) on the right edge isn’t ideal for him though.
With Olakau’atu suspended for two weeks, and a likely Origin berth looming, I think he’s a sell.
He’ll miss five of Manly’s next 10 matches.
Raiders:1. Albert Hopoate 2. Xavier Savage 3. Matthew Timoko 4. Sebastian Kris 5. Nick Cotric 6. Ethan Strange 7. Kaeo Weekes 8. Josh Papali’i 9. Danny Levi 10. Joseph Tapine 11. Hudson Young 12. Elliott Whitehead 13. Morgan Smithies
Bench: 14. Tom Starling 15. Ata Mariota 16. Trey Mooney 17. Emre Guler
Reserves: 18. Simi Sasagi 19. Peter Hola 20. Zac Woolford 21. James Schiller 22. Hohepa Puru
Analysis: I’m echoing the words of last week, but Ethan Strange (breakeven 103), James Schiller (breakeven 74) and Xavier Savage (breakeven 61) are all likely sells.
Chevy Stewart has been dropped in favour of Albert Hopoate, as has Schiller for Nic Cotric.
With round 13 and 16 coverage, Strange is a tempting hold, but he is likely to start to plummeting in value.
I’m tempted to hold…
Morgan Smithies is also peaking in price but looks a fairly decent hold for the Origin period to me, even if you don’t play him each week.
Last week’s popular cheapie Simi Sasagi had a very tough day out against the Sharks and has been dropped with Elliott Whitehead returning in a blow for owners.
He still has one decent price rise left in him with a breakeven of -29 if he can get back in the team.
BRONCOS v ROOSTERS
Friday, 8pm, Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Broncos:1. Reece Walsh 2. Jesse Arthars 3. Kotoni Staggs 4. Selwyn Cobbo 5. Deine Mariner 6. Ezra Mam 7. Adam Reynolds 8. Corey Jensen 9. Billy Walters 10. Payne Haas 11. Brendan Piakura 12. Jordan Riki 13. Patrick Carrigan
Bench: 14. Tyson Smoothy 15. Xavier Willison 16. Kobe Hetherington 17. Fletcher Baker
Reserves: 18. Corey Oates 19. Benjamin Te Kura 20. Jaiyden Hunt 21. Tristan Sailor 22. Blake Mozer
Analysis: Reece Walsh scored 73 for new owners, which would have been near enough 100 had Deine Mariner not dropped the ball with an open line.
Sure he has to do a lot to score well, but he’s a freak and will continue to find major attacking stats.
He was also cramping and vomiting the last 20 minutes of the game which didn’t help.
Xavier Willison has likely peaked with a breakeven of 47 having made owners $157k.
With Payne Haas back last week, he played just 32 minutes.
I’d look to hold for another week, if there’s an injury to Haas or Carrigan he could quickly become a long-term prospect.
Keep an eye on Brendan Piakura who was outstanding on return from injury and remains cheap at just $441k, he just needs to stay on the field!
Ezra Mam and Selwyn Cobbo have been named to return from injury.
Roosters:1. James Tedesco 2. Daniel Tupou 3. Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii 4. Joseph Manu 5. Dominic Young 6. Luke Keary 7. Sam Walker 8. Jared Waerea-Hargreaves 9. Brandon Smith 10. Lindsay Collins 11. Angus Crichton 12. Nat Butcher 13. Connor Watson
Bench: 14. Siua Wong 15. Naufahu Whyte 16. Egan Butcher 17. Terrell May
Reserves: 18. Fetalaiga Pauga 19. Sitili Tupouniua 20. Zach Dockar-Clay 21. Sandon Smith 22. Victor Radley
Analysis: The Roosters had a field-day against the Dragons with 60 NRL points and a whole heap of NRL Supercoach points.
Mostly falling in the hands of Sam Walker for his 172 points.
As good as he looked, in a stacked halfback position it feels like a case of chasing last week’s points, and the Broncos won’t roll over like the Dragons. Pass.
Angus Crichton was tremendous with 119 points and looms as a keeper that we picked up for $400k.
At $594k with a breakeven of 13 he remains affordable, but it may not be for much longer.
Terrell May has played sub 30 minutes in three of the last four weeks and is causing huge headaches.
He seemed a long-term hold, but the game time just isn’t there.
With a breakeven of 91 plenty are selling, it feels wrong to do so but it’s hard to argue with the numbers.
He plays the first two major bye rounds in round 13 and 16 where Lindsay Collins will be on Origin duty, so I think I’ll hold, cop any price drops on the chin and just play him pending team make-up.
BULLDOGS v TIGERS
Saturday, 3pm, Accor Stadium, Sydney
Bulldogs:1. Connor Tracey 2. Jacob Kiraz 3. Bronson Xerri 4. Stephen Crichton 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Matt Burton 7. Drew Hutchison 8. Max King 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Josh Curran 11. Viliame Kikau 12. Jaeman Salmon 13. Kurt Mann
Bench: 14. Bailey Hayward 15. Samuel Hughes 16. Kurtis Morrin 17. Blake Taaffe
Reserves: 19. Blake Wilson 20. Poasa Faamausili 21. Toby Sexton 22. Jacob Preston 23. Jake Turpin
Analysis: Jacob Kiraz scored 101 before the bye with a try and a try-assist, and remains on the watchlist with enormous base and power stats each week.
Matt Burton has hit his straps with a three round average of 102 points playing on that lethal left edge of the Bulldogs who have clicked into gear.
While I see the appeal, he’s $770k in a volatile Doggies outfit that face Penrith next week.
He already has low scores of 35 and 15 this season.
Not for me, but owners would be enjoying the ride.
Sam Hughes is finally bringing in that sweet cash after a patient wait for owners, making $129k thus far with a breakeven of 13!
Josh Curran has been named to start at prop, while Jacob Preston has been named on the extended bench as he bids to return from injury.
Tigers:1. Jahream Bula 2. Charlie Staines 3. Brent Naden 4. Justin Olam 5. Solomon Alaimalo 6. Lachlan Galvin 7. Aidan Sezer 8. Stefano Utoikamanu 9. Apisai Koroisau 10. David Klemmer 11. Isaiah Papali’i 12. Samuela Fainu 13. John Bateman
Bench: 14. Latu Fainu 15. Alex Twal 16. Alex Seyfarth 17. Fonua Pole
Reserves: 18. Jake Simpkin 19. Starford To’a 20. Asu Kepaoa 21. Alexander Lobb 22. Solomona Faataape
Analysis: Api Koroisau has been named despite a back concern.
Lachlan Galvin scored 54 in a well-beaten team against premiership heavyweights Brisbane, outstanding.
He’s likely an indefinite hold to see what he can produce against weaker opposition, and until we find a decent 5/8 to replace him with.
It wasn’t Samuela Fainu’s day against Brisbane, scoring just 32 with a sin-binning.
He actually dropped $4k in price after that game.
With dual FRF-2RF positioning I still think he’ll be a good buy, but we can wait another week or two to see if he can lock down the 80 minute edge role.
TITANS v STORM
Saturday, 5:30pm, Cbus Super Stadium, Gold Coast
Titans:1. AJ Brimson 2. Phillip Sami 3. Brian Kelly 4. Harley Smith-Shields 5. Jojo Fifita 6. Tanah Boyd 7. Kieran Foran 8. Joe Stimson 9. Chris Randall 10. Jaimin Jolliffe 11. David Fifita 12. Beau Fermor 13. Isaac Liu
Bench: 14. Sam Verrills 15. Erin Clark 16. Klese Haas 17. Josiah Pahulu
Reserves: 18. Alofiana Khan-Pereira 19. Keenan Palasia 20. Jacob Alick-wiencke 21. Keano Kini 22. Aaron Schoupp
Analysis: David Fifita you sweet Adonis…
Travelling to New Zealand to take on a fierce Warriors pack, on ANZAC Day, playing off the bench, surely he can’t score that well?
126 points ensued for the best 2RF in Supercoach including a try, try-assist, eight tacklebusts, three offloads and 23 runs.
His schedule over Origin is very poor missing four of seven weeks between round 13 and 19.
It’s very hard not to be enticed by him right now, but if you look ahead a touch that is a lot of action missed.
He’s the best in the position, but can you afford him to miss that much time at $820k?
AJ Brimson scored 94 in a terrific display of his own.
In 11 games at fullback last season, that were non injury-impact, he averaged 65 points with a low score off 44.
It’s worth noting though that on four occasions in this period he was returning from injuries that kept him out for a minimum of two weeks.
In 2022 he played seven games at fullback for an average of 52.85.
Priced at just $617k after his early stint at centre, he becomes a genuine POD play as a dual CTW-FLB moving forward.
The numbers aren’t super enticing, and you wouldn’t consider him at FLB, but at CTW it’s viewed differently. I think I’ll avoid but there’s serious upside there.
Storm:1. Ryan Papenhuyzen 2. William Warbrick 3. Reimis Smith 4. Nick Meaney 5. Tyran Wishart 6. Cameron Munster 7. Jahrome Hughes 8. Christian Welch 9. Harry Grant 10. Josh King 11. Shawn Blore 12. Eliesa Katoa 13. Trent Loiero
Bench: 14. Bronson Garlick 15. Joe Chan 16. Nelson Asofa-Solomona 17. Alec MacDonald
Reserves: 18. Jack Howarth 19. Sualauvi Faalogo 20. Grant Anderson 21. Dean Ieremia 22. Tristan Powell
Analysis: Cameron Munster was the star in the destruction of the Rabbitohs on ANZAC Day, notching 148 points in a vintage display!
I’m torn on his Supercoach prospects as he was quoted a few weeks back saying his persistent groin niggle would keep him to 70-80% performance this season and that he’d have bad days out as a result.
But maybe the Mad Dog’s 70% is still the best 5/8 in Supercoach?
More concerning though is just the likelihood for rests around the Origin period.
He does have lows of 37 and 42 already this season too.
I’m happy to avoid, but he looms as a POD play with upside.
Harry Grant finally found those elusive attacking stats against the Bunnies, notching his season top score of 95 points.
At $654k, I’d doubt you’ll get him any cheaper.
I do think that with Origin looming and potential for restings and reduced minutes it’s almost now or post Origin for him as a buy.
Tyran Wishart has been named to replace the injured Xavier Coates on the wing, however I suspect rookie sensation Sua Faalogo may play come game day.
COWBOYS v DOLPHINS
Saturday, 7:35pm, QCB Stadium, Townsville
Cowboys:1. Scott Drinkwater 2. Kyle Feldt 3. Valentine Holmes 4. Viliami Vailea 5. Semi Valemei 6. Tom Dearden 7. Chad Townsend 8. Jordan McLean 9. Reece Robson 10. Griffin Neame 11. Kulikefu Finefeuiaki 12. Jeremiah Nanai 13. Reuben Cotter
Bench: 14. Heilum Luki 15. Thomas Mikaele 16. Sam McIntyre 17. Jason Taumalolo
Reserves: 18. Jake Granville 19. Jake Clifford 20. Harrison Edwards 21. Jamal Shibasaki 22. Jaxon Purdue
Analysis: The Cowboys draw opens up after a tough couple of weeks with games against the Dolphins, Titans, Rabbitohs, Tigers and then the Roosters on the first major bye week.
This gives plenty of appeal to their Supercoach contingent, particularly after a spirited performance against the Panthers last week.
Scott Drinkwater could go bonkers in this period, but with a three round average of just 52 he has a monster breakeven of 148.
It’s daunting, but it’s also not out of his reach.
He’ll likely be very affordable in a fortnight’s time.
Val Holmes is semi affordable at the moment at $764k with a breakeven of 107.
He could be in for a huge month after scoring a quality 76 against Penrith.
Heilum Luki returns from injury on the bench.
Dolphins:1. Trai Fuller 2. Jamayne Isaako 3. Jake Averillo 4. Tesi Niu 5. Jack Bostock 6. Kodi Nikorima 7. Isaiya Katoa 8. Jesse Bromwich 9. Jeremy Marshall-King 10. Mark Nicholls 11. Felise Kaufusi 12. Euan Aitken 13. Max Plath
Bench: 14. Josh Kerr 15. Kurt Donoghoe 16. Ray Stone 17. Connelly Lemuelu
Reserves: 18. Oryn Keeley 19. Sean O’Sullivan 20. Jarrod Wallace 21. Edrick Lee 22. Mason Teague
Analysis: I mentioned last week that if Trai Fuller backed up the heroics from his first game he’d give Supercoaches big headaches this week.
Well, he scored 99 against the Knights and now has a breakeven of -123!
A score of 49 would net him $144k this week.
He’s also not an outside back who has just jagged a few tries, as a high work-rate fullback he’s a high upside and extremely playable option in your 17 each week.
He didn’t have try or try-assist on the weekend, but busted 11 tackles in his 26 runs.
He just screams Jahream Bula 2.0 from last season.
So do you trade a gun fullback to get him? I’ll leave that decision in your hands…
After a lean stint, Jamayne Isaako has bottomed out at $679k after scoring 113 on the weekend.
He remains a high upside POD moving forward.
Max Plath rewarded new owners with 72 points in 66 minutes.
There were numerous injuries in the Dolphins pack so we still don’t have an accurate gauge of his minutes moving forward, but he looks the goods.
KNIGHTS v WARRIORS
Sunday, 2pm, McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle
Knights:1. David Armstrong 2. Greg Marzhew 3. Dane Gagai 4. Bradman Best 5. Enari Tuala 6. Tyson Gamble 7. Jackson Hastings 8. Jacob Saifiti 9. Jayden Brailey 10. Leo Thompson 11. Dylan Lucas 12. Kai Pearce-Paul 13. Adam Elliott
Bench: 14. Phoenix Crossland 15. Daniel Saifiti 16. Jed Cartwright 17. Brodie Jones
Reserves: 18. Mathew Croker 19. Jack Hetherington 20. Jack Cogger 21. Thomas Cant 22. Thomas Jenkins
Analysis: Dane Gagai becomes very appealing having picked up the goal-kicking duties with Kalyn Ponga injured.
He averaged 72 last season without them, and is basing an enormous 39 this season which is elite for the CTW position.
The Warriors will likely be tough this week, but that’s followed by games against the Tigers, Titans, bye, then he has round 13 coverage.
He’s just $652k and has a breakeven of 73, so I think I’ll wait and watch this week, but he looks very enticing.
The only reason to really wait a week if keen is just to see him kick well and retain the duties.
If he kicks poorly, Jackson Hastings could always take over which would hurt.
Jayden Brailey looks a great pick-up in the second HOK slot.
He played 80 minutes last week for 65 points almost entirely in base with 48 tackles.
At just $379k with a breakeven of 5 he should generate solid cash and be a very playable option in your 17 when required.
David Armstrong scored 84 on his NRL debut at fullback which included a try and a whopping 12 tackle breaks!
He’s bottom dollar and is dual CTW-FLB making him an excellent cheapie prospect.
As we know, it’s recommended to wait a week as he won’t change in price this week.
As good as he was, Fletcher Sharpe has been the regular NSW Cup fullback and is due back from injury soon, so we probably want to see him lock down that spot this week to be safe.
Warriors:1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad 2. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak 3. Rocco Berry 4. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck 5. Marcelo Montoya 6. Te Maire Martin 7. Shaun Johnson 8. Addin Fonua-Blake 9. Wayde Egan 10. Mitchell Barnett 11. Jackson Ford 12. Kurt Capewell 13. Tohu Harris
Bench: 14. Dylan Walker 15. Tom Ale 16. Jacob Laban 17. Bunty Afoa
Reserves: 18. Adam Pompey 20. Zyon Maiu’u 21. Edward Kosi 22. Taine Tuaupiki 23. Tanner Stowers-Smith
Analysis: As a new Dallin Watene-Zelezniak owner in recent weeks, I was terrified to see his score without a try on the weekend, I was pleasantly surprised to see him knock out 47 points almost entirely in base and power.
Trust the Stallions to recruit him as the Warriors play their worst two games in two years…
Addin Fonua-Blake went big with 117 points thanks to a pair of tries against the Titans, beast!
He’ll remain a strong buy all season regardless of price.
Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad and Shaun Johnson both went well despite the loss.
SHARKS v DRAGONS
Sunday, 4:05pm, PointsBet Stadium, Sydney
Sharks:1. William Kennedy 2. Sione Katoa 3. Jesse Ramien 4. Kayal Iro 5. Ronaldo Mulitalo 6. Daniel Atkinson 7. Nicho Hynes 8. Thomas Hazelton 9. Blayke Brailey 10. Oregon Kaufusi 11. Briton Nikora 12. Teig Wilton 13. Cameron McInnes
Bench: 14. Jack Williams 15. Siosifa Talakai 16. Toby Rudolf 17. Braden Hamlin-Uele
Reserves: 18. Tuku Hau Tapuha 19. Mawene Hiroti 20. Samuel Stonestreet 21. Royce Hunt 22. Billy Burns
Analysis: While this match-up is great for the Sharks, after the Dragons it does get tougher with games against the Storm (A), Broncos (A) and Panthers (H).
Remarkably Ronaldo Mulitalo didn’t get in on the scoring action in the 40-0 win over the Raiders, yet he still scored 50 points with 18 runs and seven tackle busts which is very reassuring for owners.
Nicho Hynes has two big tonnes on the trot, and with Braydon Trindall out indefinitely he had an enormous amount of touches making him even more lethal in Supercoach.
He’s going to be very hard to pass up as skipper in softer match-ups moving forward on this form.
Briton Nikora has bottomed out in price at $595k after a slower start to the year by his standards.
He scored 93 against the Raiders despite having just 7 runs.
Concerningly, he’s averaging just 7.6 runs per game this season.
Nikora was a star of Supercoach last season with an average of 70 points, making him very cheap and a great pick-up.
His 45 base this season is still solid thanks to a decent amount of tackles.
Is he becoming a little attacking reliant as we’ve seen in previous years?
On the small sample size I’m happy to disregard it, but it is worth noting.
After scoring 53+ in five of six games this season, Jesse Ramien finally broke through for a big 115 point score against the Raiders who could hardly tackle him.
He’s averaging 64 points with 34 in base and looms as a POD play, although that upcoming draw is off-putting.
Dragons: 1. Tyrell Sloan 2. Christian Tuipulotu 3. Jack Bird 4. Zac Lomax 5. Mikaele Ravalawa 6. Kyle Flanagan 7. Ben Hunt 8. Francis Molo 9. Jacob Liddle 10. Hame Sele 11. Raymond Faitala-Mariner 12. Jaydn Su’A 13. Tom Eisenhuth
Bench: 14. Fa’amanu Brown 15. Blake Lawrie 16. Jack de Belin 17. Ben Murdoch-Masila
Reserves: 18. Michael Molo 19. Mathew Feagai 20. Toby Couchman 21. Luciano Leilua 22. Jesse Marschke
Analysis: Zac Lomax got away with 60 points in the ANZAC Day drubbing which is a huge result for owners.
With Moses Suli out due to a concussion, Lomax starts at centre.
No interest elsewhere at the moment.
